Flood Hydrograph Simulation with Uncertainty in Rainfall - Runoff Parameters

Flood hydrograph simulation is affected by uncertainty in Rainfall – Runoff )RR( parameters. Uncertainty of RR parameters in Gharasoo catchment, part of the great Karkheh river basin, is evaluated by Monte–Carlo (MC) approach. A conceptual-distributed model, called ModClark, was used for basin simulation, in which the basin’s hydrograph was determined using the superposition of runoff generated by individual cells dividing the catchment in a raster–based discretization. A narrow parameter range was obtained through application of the MC method. Parameter range depended on goodness of fit measures. The results of various goodness-of-fit measures are discussed in this paper. The selected goodness-of-fit measures gave high weight to peak discharge to reduce peak discharge error.